Genesis Invitational (2024) Best Outright & Placement Picks
The Genesis Invitational is the last stop on the PGA Tour's "California Swing". Today, I am breaking down two players that I think are poised to have big weekends here at Riviera Country Club.
It’s been quite some time since I have put a bet in on a PGA event, but I have been keeping an eye on who has been playing well and I thought it was time to get back into it this weekend with the PGA Tour holding one of their signature events at Riviera Country Club.
Yesterday, I did a full breakdown of the Genesis Invitational, touching on the event history, the course it self and specific stats that I used to find these players. If you missed it, click the link below to read everything you need to know about this event.
Genesis Invitational (2024) Event & Course Preview
Okay.. let me stop wasting time, let’s get into the picks!
Justin Thomas Outright (+1800) bet365 / Top 10 Finish (+140) BetMGM
Leading up to the Ryder Cup last season, there were a lot of questions surrounding Justin Thomas and if he should be on the team or not as he had underperformed most of the 2023 season. Well, it seems that these conversations really motivated Thomas and since the Wyndham Championship back in August, Thomas has been one of the most consistent golfers in the world having finished no worse than T-12 in his last seven events.
Over these last seven starts, Thomas has finished inside the top 10 in five of those seven starts and inside the top five in four of those seven starts. On top of that, Thomas has the 2nd most true strokes gained of any golfer over their last five events and has two top 10 finishes here at the Genesis Invitational in his last five trips.
Thomas’s game set’s up really well for Riviera Country club, over the last 30 days he ranks…
10th in the field in SG: Approach
14th in the field in SG: Off The Tee
3rd in the field in SG: Around The Green
This combination of stats over the last 30 days has led to Thomas ranking..
2nd in the field in SG: Tee-To-Green
5th in the field in SG: Ball Striking
Thomas has not won an event since the PGA Championship in 2022, but with how well he has been striking the ball recently and how talented he is, you can just feel that he is due to breakthrough with a win at some point soon and I think it could happen here as six of the last seven winners of the Genesis Invitational have had a T5 finish or better at this event, which Thomas had in 2019 and finished 6th in 2022.
Adam Scott Outright (+3300) BetMGM Outright / Top 20 Finish (-118) BetMGM
I will VERY rarely lay juice when betting golf, but when I do, I really love the play & BetMGM doesn’t do dead heats, which means we will be fully paid out if Scott ends up in a tie for T20.
Scott has just returned to action over the last two weeks after taking the first few events of the season off, but in those two starts he has two top 20 finishes and is coming off of a T8 finish last weekend at the WM Phoenix Open last weekend at TPC Scottsdale.
If you include last season, Scott has finished inside the top 20 in six straight starts between the PGA and DP World Tour and five of those he has finished inside the top 10.
So far this season, Scott ranks 5th on the PGA Tour in SG: Approach and 3rd on tour in proximity to the hole on approach. On top of that Scott ranks 2nd in approach proximity from 175-200 yards and 19th on tour in approach proximity from 150-175 yards, which will be the two most common approach distances this weekend. Scott also ranks 8th on tour in greens in regulation percentage and 1st in par three scoring average, two areas I think players will have to be good this weekend to have success.
Over his first two starts this season, Scott has gained +3.26 true strokes gained on approach and ranks 3rd in the field in SG: Ball Striking over the last 30 days. Over his last five trips to Riviera Country Club, he has three top 10 finishes with one of those being an event win back in 2020. With how well he has been playing and his history at this course, I am expecting him to be back in contention again this weekend.
Keeping the card small with it being my first week back in golf, I am planning on looking at matchups & round one plays tomorrow & and am planning on sending out another newsletter with lose plays tomorrow afternoon/evening!